Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 25.5 | 96% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 27.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| Vikings O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 33.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Vikings O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 35.5 | 82% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| Vikings O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| O/U 37.5 | 79% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 71% |
| O/U 41.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| Vikings O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 44.5 | 60% |
| Vikings O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 46.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Vikings O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Vikings Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Vikings vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 25+ | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 19-24 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 1-6 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Vikings Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 42% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Vikings O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Moneyline | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Vikings vs. Bears | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 54.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| Vikings O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 25% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 56.5 | 25% |
| Vikings O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 58.5 | 21% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Vikings O/U 30.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 13% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Vikings O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: vikings vs. bears 97%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Vikings wins, the market will resolve to "Vikings". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.7M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Sofort Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Sofort Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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