Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Dolphins O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 14-20 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 100% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Dolphins O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 1% |
| O/U 45.5 | 1% |
| O/U 47.5 | 1% |
| O/U 51.5 | 1% |
| O/U 53.5 | 1% |
| O/U 55.5 | 1% |
| O/U 57.5 | 1% |
| O/U 59.5 | 1% |
| Dolphins vs. Raiders | 0% |
| O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| O/U 41.5 | 0% |
| O/U 43.5 | 0% |
| O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| O/U 61.5 | 0% |
| 2H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 25+ | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 19-24 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 13-18 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 7-12 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 1-6 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-13 | 0% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 21+ | 0% |
| Safety? | 0% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 0% |
| Dolphins Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 0% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins vs. Raiders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 42.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| O/U 46.5 | 0% |
| O/U 48.5 | 0% |
| O/U 50.5 | 0% |
| O/U 52.5 | 0% |
| O/U 54.5 | 0% |
| O/U 56.5 | 0% |
| O/U 58.5 | 0% |
| O/U 60.5 | 0% |
| O/U 62.5 | 0% |
| O/U 64.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 34.5 | 0% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Dolphins vs. Raiders" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 4:25PM ET: If Dolphins wins, the market will resolve to "Dolphins". If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.4M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Dolphins vs. Raiders über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Sofort Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
Jetzt „Prognose: Dolphins vs. Raiders" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →