Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 74% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 59% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 59% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 54% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Yassine Bounou: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Issa Diop: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Chadi Riad: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 44% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 32% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Gessime Yassine: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 85% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: France vs. Morocco - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Morocco, scheduled for July 9 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Sofort Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Sofort Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Morocco - Player Props" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →