Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 97% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 83% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 67% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 38% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 37% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 37% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 30% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: france vs. spain - player props 97%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Sofort Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →