Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 97% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 75% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 22% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 15% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Sofort Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →