Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 46.5 | 83% |
| O/U 54.5 | 81% |
| O/U 52.5 | 74% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 67% |
| Oregon O/U 27.5 | 67% |
| Oregon vs. USC | 64% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| Spread -0.5 | 63% |
| Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Spread -12.5 | 59% |
| Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 1H Moneyline | 59% |
| O/U 58.5 | 58% |
| Oregon O/U 30.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 34.5 | 54% |
| USC O/U 27.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 54% |
| Spread -12.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 37.5 | 53% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 15.5 | 53% |
| O/U 60.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 51% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 78.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| USC 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| USC 1H O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| O/U 62.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 45% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| O/U 64.5 | 42% |
| USC O/U 30.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -0.5 | 37% |
| O/U 66.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| O/U 70.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 68.5 | 21% |
| O/U 76.5 | 20% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| O/U 72.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| O/U 82.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 83% Chance für prognose: oregon vs. usc. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between Oregon and USC, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Oregon" if Oregon win the game. This market will…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $284K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Oregon vs. USC über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Sofort Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Sofort Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Sofort Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Oregon vs. USC" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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